- Why the U.S. economy has recovered recently (at least to some extent): a credit boomlet.
- Why the Euro Area economy has stagnated with little chance for a change: a credit deflation since 2011.
- Why Japan has been in a protracted recession/stagnation: a sustained credit bust since the 1990's.
“The popularity of inflation and credit expansion, the ultimate source of the repeated attempts to render people prosperous by credit expansion, and thus the cause of the cyclical fluctuations of business, manifests itself clearly in the customary terminology. The boom is called good business, prosperity, and upswing.
Its unavoidable aftermath, the readjustment of conditions to the real data of the market, is called crisis, slump, bad business, depression. People rebel against the insight that the disturbing element is to be seen in the malinvestment and the overconsumption of the boom period and that such an artificially induced boom is doomed. They are looking for the philosopher's stone to make it last.”
(Ludwig von Mises, 1940)