It wasn't the only fault of Riksbank. In December 2007, when it was clear that stock markets were tumbling worldwide and something was going seriously wrong, its GDP forecast for 2008 totted up to the rosy 2.4 percent growth. (Fact: a 0.6 percent decline.) On the other hand, there was a 6.6 percent boom in 2010, which the Riksbank also failed to forecast. (Its prediction for 2010 was a 2.7 percent growth.)
Cold comfort could be found in the fact that other central banks and academic economists worldwide fared similarly poorly as to their forecasting power. Sometimes even much worse. The morale: Forecasting fails most spectacularly when you need it most desperately.